This is the question on everyone’s mind. I find in my business that people are looking for a guarantee. While I can’t guarantee the future I can say after 21 years in real estate sales that market will go up and the market will go down. We have definitely been on the down side for a while now and I believe it may even go a down some more before it goes up but don’t listen to me, this is what some of the “experts” are predicting:
June 2008, “It will get worse before it gets better. It will get better, because the demographics are compelling. We have more people living in homes, we have the population growing from 300 to 350 million people, immigration, baby boomers, the eco-generation, and all those are driving demand. So long-term the value of your house will increase, but in the short-term the value of your house will probably decrease.” This is according to Henry Silverman, Realogy Corp
Aug. 14, 2008, “Foreclosure Activity Increases 8% in July”; “Activity Up 55% From July 2007”; “Nevada, California, Florida post top state foreclosure rates”, According to RealtyTrac(R)
August 25, 2008, “Sales of existing homes rose 3.1% in July, about double what economists had expected”; “Despite the increase, the inventory of unsold homes reached an 11.2-month supply matching the all-time high”, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
August 26, 2008, Jim Cramer, host of CNBC’s Mad Money called the bottom of the housing boom, “The economy will never recover if housing doesn’t find its footing first.” when does he expect that will happen? Jim Cramer said he expects a bottom by the third quarter of 2009.
What does this mean, buy now or wait? The housing market is one of the nation’s top concerns, its right up there with gas prices and the Presidential election. Each day brings more and sometimes conflicting news but I believe now is a great time to buy. You’re probably thinking well of course she says that she’s a Realtor and wants people to buy homes – true. However, the reality is that we can’t put a date and time on the bottom of the market or when it will turn around. But everyone needs to live somewhere so why not live in the home and/or area that you want to live in and if you’re renting wouldn’t you like to own a home of your own?
In addition, real estate is extremely localized so the answer to the question, “should I buy now or wait?” depends on what you want to buy. My area, the South Bay of Los Angels, is small geographically yet we have every type of housing available from beach condos to high end single family homes, townhomes and investment property. So answering that question depends on many factors. The best way to get it answered is to talk with your local Realtor. In my experience, most people want to wait and see what everyone else is doing before they make a move. The smart buyers are out there right now getting deals. I guarantee that by the time the majority gets off the sidelines and starts buying, it’s too late. So if you buy now, yes prices may go down further, but that won’t last forever, eventually things will turn around. The key is to buy a home you want, that suits your needs in an area you like with payment you can afford.
